The Sarcasm Report v.186

iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF

Average Yield to Maturity: 0.15%

Expense Ratio: 0.15%

Perfect!

It is just like cash, only it isn't cash. It's a professionally managed bond fund! Genius!

Check out the fund's chart. What's not to like? $2.4 billion in assets! Very popular!

July 20, 2009
Focus on short end of yield curve, PIMCO says

Focus as you patiently await the end of ZIRP! 5 years so far! But we really, really, really mean it this time!

It's at an end! Cutting out! Kaput! Finished! Drop the curtain! Break camp! Pull up stakes! Finis! Absolutely, positively it! Not pulling your leg! Down the road! We swear we won't ever be back! Ain't gonna happen! Forget about it! Shutting it down! Lost our lease! Can't find it! Don't care! We're done! Closing shop! Putting up the shutters! Bolting the doors! Slamming them closed! Gonna board the place up! Nailing it shut! Big nails! Nothing gets in or out! Sealing it off! We're history! We really! Really! Really! Mean it! We're not jerking your chain on this! No snow job! Not bluffing! No kidding!

This concludes today's sarcasm report. :)

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Our Economy Distilled (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual change in beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverage wholesalers' sales.


Click to enlarge.

Don't let the trend line concern you. As seen in the next chart, I assure you that we are more than prepared to throw a legendary party!


Click to enlarge.

Just look at all that inventory accumulation. Yes, sir. Somebody must know something. The party's definitely coming!

Saturday night - high
Saturday night - high 'n' dry
Saturday night - I'm high
Saturday night - high 'n' dry

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

charts deflation musical tribute sarcasm stock market videos

A Great Disturbance in the Civilian Labor Force

Click to enlarge.

The blue line (left scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 25 to 54. It peaked in the late 1990s and it has been pretty much going down ever since.

The red line (left scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 55 and over. It bottomed in the early 1990s and it has been generally going up ever since (recent flattening notwithstanding).

The green line (right scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 25 to 54 divided by the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 55 and over.

In a truly healthy economy, should those aged 25 to 54 really be dropping out of the labor force at faster pace than those aged 55 and over (as seen in that green line since the early 1990s)?



Wikipedia: Giant Sucking Sound

The "giant sucking sound" was United States Presidential candidate Ross Perot's colorful phrase for what he believed would be the negative effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he opposed.

In space no one can hear you scream suck.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts employment sarcasm trade deficit videos

Restaurant Employment Prosperity (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows annual food services and drinking places employment growth.


Click to enlarge.

3.7% annual growth! Very impressive. Each time we get a recession (the deeper the recession the better), we get more growth. More recessions for the win! Genius!

We just need to stay in that strong, resilient, predictable, and consistent trend channel long-term, preferably near the top. The long-term trend is so obvious that I don't even feel the need to add a trend line. Did I mention how stable and sustainable the channel is? Just look at it! A few more years of this and it will be almost impossible to leave the channel no matter what happens. Who doesn't love certainty?

The annual data in the first chart doesn't include 2014 yet, but I can give you a glimpse of how the year is starting off using monthly data.


Click to enlarge.

There are a whopping 10.5 million people employed in this rapidly growing industry. Growth appears to have peaked back in July. As of January, the growth is still above 3% though and there's nothing but biscuits and gravy on the horizon! Can't you see it? And with average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers in this industry coming in at $10.96 (December 2013), what's not to like?

In honor of the charts, I suggest we all try to work Chipotle into our conversations (more than we already do). Start the day off right. When we wake up each morning we should exclaim, "What a great day to Chipotle!" Or alternatively, "The future's so bright I gotta Chipotle!"

January 30, 2014
Traffic jump boosts Chipotle restaurant sales, stock soars

(Reuters) - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.N) said on Thursday an increase in customer visits contributed to bigger-than-expected growth in quarterly sales at established restaurants, and its shares rose nearly 13 percent in extended trading.

People braved the extreme weather to eat burritos? It's a frickin' polar vortex miracle!



See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

charts employment musical tribute restaurant sarcasm stock market videos

Our Economic Plague Ship (Musical Tribute)

Long-time reader mab offers the following comment in this post:

I'm watching CNBC. What's the deal? The "experts" keep blaming our economic ills on the cruise ship Queen Elizabeth!

In my opinion, this really deserves its own Christmas ship musical tribute!



Sing along! You know the tune!

Out in the Harbor

Out in the harbor, cruise ship ills
In through the dust mask, doctor bills
Down with economies, it destroys
Spreading little bugs, with sick bellboys

Oh, no, no! Who could've known?
Oh, no, no! Who wouldn't groan?
Out in the harbor, sick, sick, sick
In through the dust mask, it's ick, ick, ick

First came the sickness of little Bill
Oh dear God ships make him ill
Gave him a virus to choke and wheeze
One that fevered him to high degrees

Oh, no, no! Who could've known?
Oh, no, no! Who wouldn't groan?
Out in the harbor, sick, sick, sick
In through the dust mask, it's ick, ick, ick

Next came the sickness of little Mitt
Have we ever seen so much vomit?
Here was some fluid for what he lacked
Also a drug some say acts like crack

Oh, no, no! Who could've known?
Oh, no, no! Who wouldn't groan?
Out in the harbor, sick, sick, sick
In through the dust mask, it's ick, ick, ick

No day is complete without at least a little gallows humor. Sigh.

musical tribute sarcasm videos

The Fed's 10-1 Leverage Has Paid Off! (Musical Tribute)

The following chart compares the trillions of dollars the monetary base has grown (in blue) to the trillions of dollars household net worth has grown (in red) since the first quarter of 2009.


Click to enlarge.

Each dollar the Fed spends gets us back ten! Why on earth is the Fed tapering the sure thing? We need even moar leverage! Not less!

Crazy Theory

Let's cash out $10.8 trillion of household net worth (just half of the gain), hand it to the Fed, and let them reinvest it for us! We'll get $108 trillion back! We can then use that money to pay off all our debts and still have plenty left over! Perhaps even enough for every man, woman, and child to retire!

Why hasn't anyone else thought of this? Genius!

December 17-18, 2013
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee

Participants were most concerned about the marginal cost of additional asset purchases arising from risks to financial stability, pointing out that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy could provide an incentive for excessive risk-taking in the financial sector.

Oops. Please disregard my crazy theory above. It would seem that I was offering the very thing the Fed is most worried about. You have to admit that it seemed like a darned good theory on paper though. I just hadn't factored in any unintended consequences. In my defense, it's really easy to do once I went down the "excessive risk-taking" path (gambling $10.8 trillion on a "sure thing" would definitely qualify).

Marrakesh Night Market

The magic lies scattered
On rugs on the ground
Faith is conjured by the night market's sound

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts debt fed chairman housing musical tribute sarcasm stock market treasuries videos

Personal Income Growth (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

It is not adjusted for inflation, population growth, or income inequality.



See Also:
Real Annual Disposable Personal Income per Capita Growth
Employment Hump Déjà Vu (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Personal Income Growth

charts employment inflation linear trend failure musical tribute sarcasm videos

My Take on Construction Spending (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the natural log of the combined total of religious construction spending, sewage and waste disposal construction spending, and amusement and recreation construction spending all divided by disposable personal income. I am once again using a natural log so that exponential growth (or in this case decay) can be seen as a straight line.


Click to enlarge.

Why religious, sewage and waste disposal, and amusement and recreation construction spending you might ask?

1. We have lost faith.
2. The @#$% is hitting the fan again.
3. We are not amused.



"Bond" is certainly having a good year so far (the last few weeks in particular). Shocking.

The 20-year TIPS is back under 1%. Let's just blame the next 20 years on a few months of cold weather and call it good.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts employment inflation musical tribute sarcasm treasuries videos

The Future of American Baby Manufacturing (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

Wikipedia: Optimism

Optimism is a mental attitude or world view that interprets situations and events as being best (optimized), meaning that in some way for factors that may not be fully comprehended, the present moment is in an optimum state. The concept is typically extended to include the attitude of hope for future conditions unfolding as optimal as well.

Hey! Look! A parabola! Woo-hoo!



See Also:
St. Louis Fed: Japan's Working Age Population
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts employment housing japan musical tribute sarcasm videos

Housing's Addiction and Recovery (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows owner occupied housing units.



Jane's Addiction - Mountain Song

Cash in
Cash in now honey
Cash in now
Cash in now baby
Cash in now honey
Cash in Miss Smith
Cash in now baby

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Owner Occupied Housing Units

charts housing linear trend failure musical tribute sarcasm videos

You Can't Handle the Truth!

The following chart shows the semiannual average of the 30-year conventional mortgage rate.


Click to enlarge.

I have added an exponential decay trend line in blue and an exponential decay channel in red. To create the top of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 1.2 (+20%). To create the bottom of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 0.8 (-20%).

Over the long-term, does that look like a rising interest rate environment to you? Is there any indication, any indication at all, that the long-term trend is failing? As of the 2nd half of 2013, we're sitting right on the long-term trend line in blue.

You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that hits housing walls and those housing walls have to be guarded by men with continually falling interest rate policies.

Did you see the stock market turn red?
I did the job.
Did you see the stock market turn red?
You're goddamned right I did!

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts debt fed chairman housing sarcasm stock market treasuries videos

Real Business Inventories per Capita (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows real business inventories per capita (December 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts musical tribute sarcasm stock market videos

Gaga Over Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth! (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual growth in the annual average of real personal consumption expenditures.


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts inflation musical tribute sarcasm videos

What to Expect From Janet Yellen's Fed (Musical Tribute)

Q&A: What to Expect From Janet Yellen's Fed

Beyond that, I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed under Yellen lowers the unemployment-rate threshold that could trigger an increase in interest rates. A number of years ago, the Fed introduced this idea of a 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering rate hikes. But that threshold is almost certainly out of date. That's because the unemployment rate continues to drop for the wrong reasons: We keep getting a decline in the number of people looking for work. The Fed wants strong job growth, not people abandoning the labor force. And so it has to decide whether to throw it away or go to lower the level. Our feeling is the Fed will lower it to 6% or perhaps 5.5%.

And how long would we expect that unemployment rate to stay at 5.5%?

The following chart shows the 30 year moving average of the unemployment rate.


Click to enlarge.

Note that 5.5% seems like a pipe dream over the long-term (unless we can somehow magically undo the permanent damage done in the 1970s).



Yellen love you long time.

(Shame on me for going there, lol. Sigh.)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Unemployment Rate

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A Glimpse of Real Prosperity

January 14, 2014

After a month of research and looking through over 10,000 vintage teddy bears on online, I was able to find clues to reconstruct her childhood teddy bear "Whitey." Whitey was given to her as a gift during her mother's baby shower for Jess, so he is technically older than she is!

When I began this venture, Whitey was in two pieces (his head ripped off) and missing an ear, his nose, both eyes, and not to mention half of his stuffing was gone. So, I took him to the Secaucus Doll and Teddy Bear Hospital, and after a week, they were able to restore him to his original glory.

Sometimes the best things in life really do come in small packages. :)

real prosperity videos

New Homes vs. Wages (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

charts employment housing musical tribute sarcasm videos

The Sarcasm Report v.183

January 22, 2014
Forbes: Protect Yourself From A Treasury Bond Crash

How do you make money from this crash—or at least lessen your losses from it?

January 27, 2014
Wall Street Journal: Treasurys Swing Higher After New-Home Sales Lower

The newly revealed weakness in the nation's housing sector underscored the dependence of the economic recovery on cheaper financing, a key factor that will hold interest rates from racing higher this year.

U.S. Treasurys rallied strongly last week, as a selloff in global equity and currency markets prompted investors to flee risky assets and take shelter in the safe-haven market. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell to 2.737% at Friday's close, the lowest level in two months.

housing sarcasm sarcasm report stock market treasuries videos

A Railroad Productivity Miracle (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

The data in blue shows the annual inflation adjusted rail transportation corporate profits after tax (left scale, billions of December 2013 dollars).

The data in black shows the number of rail transportation employees (right scale, thousands).

It's almost like each additional boxcar on a train does not require an additional worker.



July 24, 2013
Forget the Google Car. The Future is Robotic Trucks.

Everyone seems rightly focused on the coming Google Car. But there are bigger changes lurking for a critical part of our transportation infrastructure: Trucks. And the 5.7 million Americans who drive them.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

automation charts employment musical tribute stock market vehicles videos

General Fright: Trucking (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual change in the aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory general freight trucking employees.


Click to enlarge.

Don't let the chart unnerve you! As we all know, the stock market only goes up!



This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

charts employment musical tribute sarcasm stock market videos

The Fed's Real Accommodation

The following chart shows the monthly change in the 12-month moving average of the aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory accommodation industry employees.


Click to enlarge.

In case you didn't know, it's an alarm! You're not on a pleasure cruise!

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
NBER: US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

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