Yesterday, I posted the following chart.
November 10, 2012
The Interest Rates of World War II
Click to enlarge.
I realized last night that I had seen that chart shape before. The following chart adds in manufacturing employment as a 2nd data series (in red).
Click to enlarge.
Let's use 10-year moving averages to remove the short-term cyclical noise.
Click to enlarge.
Mind blowing! Now let's take that data and put it on a scatter chart.
Click to enlarge.
This chart is consistent with my view that the 3-month treasury bill rate may remain low for a very, very long time. There are powerful inflationary forces in the world but there are powerful deflationary forces too. Thanks to increasing automation, it is my opinion that global manufacturing employment is definitely not on the rise (at least over the long-term).
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
November 10, 2012
The Interest Rates of World War II
Click to enlarge.
I realized last night that I had seen that chart shape before. The following chart adds in manufacturing employment as a 2nd data series (in red).
Click to enlarge.
Let's use 10-year moving averages to remove the short-term cyclical noise.
Click to enlarge.
Mind blowing! Now let's take that data and put it on a scatter chart.
Click to enlarge.
This chart is consistent with my view that the 3-month treasury bill rate may remain low for a very, very long time. There are powerful inflationary forces in the world but there are powerful deflationary forces too. Thanks to increasing automation, it is my opinion that global manufacturing employment is definitely not on the rise (at least over the long-term).
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
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